Free tool
Losing streak calculator
A run of losses is not bad luck, it is arithmetic. This says how long a run is normal at your win rate, what it costs at the size you trade, and what size would leave you still trading afterwards.
At a 45% win rate over 100 trades, a run of 6 losses is more likely than not. At 1% risk that costs 5.9% of the account.
| Losing run | Chance you hit it | What it costs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 in a row | 100.0% | 1.0% |
| 2 in a row | 100.0% | 2.0% |
| 3 in a row | 100.0% | 3.0% |
| 4 in a row | 99.4% | 4.0% |
| 5 in a row | 92.0% | 4.9% |
| 6 in a rowmore likely than not | 72.9% | 5.9% |
| 7 in a row | 49.7% | 6.8% |
| 8 in a row | 30.7% | 7.7% |
| 9 in a row | 17.9% | 8.6% |
| 10 in a rowplan for this one | 10.1% | 9.6% |
| 11 in a row | 5.6% | 10.5% |
| 12 in a row | 3.1% | 11.4% |
Add an account size for the money column. Every percentage above is the same without it.
| If the most that run can cost you is | then your risk per trade is |
|---|---|
| 10% | 1.74% |
| 20% | 3.65% |
| 33% | 6.45% |
| 50% | 10.91% |
No row here is the right one. Which drawdown you can live with is yours to pick, and this only says what each one costs per trade.
This treats every trade as independent. Real losses cluster, so your true run is at least this long and often longer.
Why the streak is the number that matters
A 45% win rate sounds survivable until you work out what it implies. Over a hundred trades it makes a run of six losses more likely than not, and a run of nine roughly a one-in-ten event. Traders size for the average trade and then meet the run. The run is what closes accounts.
The math, in the open
The chance of a run is computed exactly, by walking every way the wins and losses can fall, not by simulating and not by an approximation that only holds over long horizons. The cost compounds: each loss is a percent of what is left, so ten losses at 2% costs 18.3% and not 20%. Turning it around, the risk that keeps a run inside a drawdown you name is the same formula read backwards.
What it assumes, and where that breaks
It treats every trade as independent of the last one. Real trading is not: one bad regime, one tilted afternoon, one revenge entry after a loss, and the losses arrive together. That error runs one way only. Your real worst run is at least as long as this says and usually longer, so read the answer as a floor.
What a calculator cannot see
It used the win rate you typed. It has no way of knowing whether that is your win rate, and no way of telling you the number that beats every estimate on this page: the longest losing run already in your own history. Travise counts both from your closed trades, and says so when the run you have already lived through is longer than the one this page called normal.
Turn a risk percent into a share count with the sizing calculator.